越南機會基金(VOF)淨值及股價預估(Valuation)

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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-23 09:08 |只看樓主 1
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T
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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-23 09:11 |只看樓主 2
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

越南機會基金(Vietnam Opportunity Fund)不管是成立年數,
基金規模或是成交量(流通性)來看,
都是一個介入越南高速成長金融市場不錯的標的,
因為它是封閉型基金(Close-end Fund),
交易股價和淨值會有溢價或折價,
根據過去3年多紀錄,
這支機會基金最多數時間至少都保有10%溢價,
它的淨值是每月公布,
因此我根據它1月底每股淨值2.91美元,
以及至今年底淨值成長不同的假設,
算出它在不同假設下可能的淨值和股價,
相信對於想買它的人,可以對照市價變化來看是否適合買入,
如果以今年越南經濟成長的幅度和股市熱度來預估,
這支基金今年淨值2月算起的11個月份,
正成長機率相當大,
若最保守來推估成長12%,年底淨值約3.25,
對照目前3.75股價,溢價超過15%,所以並不是最安全的買點,
不過我個人比較傾向至今年底,
淨值還會成長約2成,也就是年底淨值會是3.62,
若這個預期最後符合,那對照目前股價,溢價小於5%,
現在的價位買進會有賺,賺多少就看溢價幅度到多少,
當然若樂觀一點看待,至年底淨值還會成長3成,
以38%來算,年底淨值是4.03,
那目前股價就是被低估了,應該要買進,
以上是以較正常的財務預測模式來做為這支基金股價是否合理的參考,
因為越南是小型市場,資金又不斷進入,
加上是共產國家,對於政策的執行,
常會是無預警而且快速執行,
容易出現非預測內的干擾因素....

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大家發財 發表於: 2007-02-23 10:01 |只看該用戶 3
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

進場不用急,且看三月越南是否真的實施資金管制再說...

若真的實施,太好了還有低點可以再進場...

另一方面可以觀察全球多空方向...剛好這陣子從多空不明轉為多頭強勢格局...以上為新手近期觀察結果,盈虧自負...

說實在的,我比較看好中國...

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蔡依琳 發表於: 2007-02-23 10:14 |只看該用戶 4
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

謝J大開示
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金牛角prosxx@yahoo 發表於: 2007-02-23 10:56 |只看該用戶 5
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

我先前有示範兩天賺10%,

我建議好的買點是利空測試時, 為最佳的進場點

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peace 發表於: 2007-02-23 22:59 |只看該用戶 6
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

這分析蠻好的

NAV 與股價值得探討

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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-24 08:36 |只看樓主 7
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

越南媒體昨天發了一篇對於3月1日即將實施外資管制傳聞報導,
此傳聞來自澳洲ANZ銀行引述不具名官員的發言,不過目前沒有任何一個越南券商可以證實這項措施即將實行。
文中也特別提到,去年12月18日泰國宣布對於外資管制,結果造成股市單日大跌15%,
因此越南官員絕對清楚若是貿然實施像泰國那樣宣布的措施,
會對資本市場帶來龐大衝擊,
個人覺得,若是真的實施管制措施,
絕不會像泰國之前那樣的激進,
反倒是因為去年11月海外資金一直湧進越南,
造成越南盾在去年12月升值0.25%,今年1月升值0.02%,
升幅創下11年來最高紀錄,
貨幣升值是否衝擊越南出口貿易是觀察重點,
至於對於股市降溫的措施,僅是短期衝擊而已,

越南是未來10年最具成長潛力的亞洲小小龍,
由於過去戰亂因素,人口約八千多的越南,
目前有70%越南人是30歲以下,50%是在25歲以下,
年輕又便宜的勞動力是各跨國企業最想要的,
加上成為WTO會員國為其打開通往全球貿易之門,
這也是為什麼南韓企業大舉進軍越南,
現在快取代台商成為當地最愛,
而日本企業也明確表示,不再只扶植中國市場,
將要培養其第二個勞力代工市場,
日本認為越南的勞力市場比印尼和馬來西亞更優質,
所以越南未來將會挑戰泰國,馬來西亞,印尼在原始東協十國的地位,
這支小小龍,經濟成長爆發力十足,所以我給它取了個名--亞洲暴暴龍!



VN to control foreign capital flow to stock market?
14:37' 23/02/2007 (GMT+7)

VietNamNet Bridge – No Vietnamese competent agencies have confirmed the news that Vietnam is going
to take measures to control the capital flowing in and out of the stock market.
Foreign press agencies like Bloomberg and AFP have quoted the news source from ANZ Bank,
which is operating in Vietnam, as saying that Vietnam may apply several measures to control
the capital flow in the stock market as Thailand has been doing with its stock market.
The decision has been explained as aiming to cool down the overly hot stock market in Vietnam.
Alex Joiner and Amy Auster, two experts of ANZ have warned investors in a bulletin that the Government
will apply the measures as of March 1, 2007. The experts have quoted a financial report with unclear
sources when giving the warning.
The government is ready to apply strong measures, and it is clear that securities prices will decrease,
the two experts said. Meanwhile, Deputy Governor Phung Khac Ke declined to comment about the news when
talking with a foreign news agency.
After Vietnam joined WTO in November 2006, in December 2006 and January 2007,
the local currency VND has increased by 0.25% and 0.02% respectively in value,
the biggest increases in the last 11 years.
Joiner and Auster said that foreign investors may be asked to keep securities at least for one year
in order to limit speculation. As for the investment funds, after one year of keeping securities,
they will only be able to sell securities 30 days after getting the permission from competent agencies.
On December 18, 2006, Thailand took the same measures and the move froze the stock market immediately
(the market was down by 15%) and caused very bad consequences though it was removed one day later.
However, no competent authorities have confirmed the information released by ANZ Bank. An official
who asked to be not named, said that Vietnam may apply the measures to control the capital inflow
and outflow, but the problem is that how the measures will be. The official has declined to reveal
the details of the measures and the time slated for the application.
He also did not say if the measures predicted by ANZ are true.
Prior to that, the Prime Minister asked ministries and relevant branches to consider and suggest
the measures to control the stock market.
Analysts said that once Vietnam decides to apply the measures to control the market,
it would cause considerable impacts on the supply and demand of foreign currencies
and the value of the local currency. By the end of 2006,
the portfolio investment to Vietnam had reached $3bil.
Currently, the foreign investors, who want to make investments in securities,
must open accounts in VND at authorised banks. All the transactions relating to securities
trading must be carried out through these accounts.
If the investors have foreign currencies, they must sell foreign currencies to
get VND to make transactions. If they want to transfer profits abroad,
they must buy foreign currencies with the VND available on their accounts and transfer abroad.

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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-24 22:00 |只看樓主 8
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

投資單一個國家的封閉型基金,股價通常不會等於其淨值,
其溢價或折價的幅度,主要是決定於:
a.該國對海外投資限制 (foreign investment restrictions)
b.管理費和缺乏流通性 (management fees and lack of liquidity)
c.和美國市場的連動性 (correlation with U.S. market)

以越南機會基金來說,因為越南對於外資還是限定最高持股49%上限,加上投資者必須直接至越南開戶,所以直接投資該國股市難度較高,
這種型態的單一國家封閉型基金,通常會享有較大幅度溢價;而以管理費和缺乏流通性來說,投資已開發國家的市場很容易,因此投資人
會選擇直接進入該國股市,相對來說,也比較喜歡投資已開發國家的開放式基金甚於封閉型基金。至於和美國市場的連動性是說,根據實
證歷史資料來看,單一國家封閉型基金股價和美國市場有高度連動性,市場交易股價會很慢才反映其淨值變動,這也是為什麼像越南機會
基金這種投資單一國家的封閉型基金股價會比真正淨值來得高。

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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-25 08:39 |只看樓主 9
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

這家銀行對越南金融市場的地位,就像中國工商銀行在中國的地位那樣,
確定今年暑假上市,想必越南投資人,每個人都想搶到愈多股愈好.....


VietNamNet Bridge – The time for IPO (initial public offering) of Vietcombank has been slated for July 2007.
The date for listing Vietcombank’s shares has also been set: 6-8 weeks after the IPO.

N.T.A, a senior official of Vietcombank, said that several thousands staffs of the bank are
anxiously expecting the day when Vietcombank is equitised. And the most concerned issue is
how many shares they can purchase and at which price levels. However, the information has
not been made public, especially the information about the selling of preferential shares.

An official, who has been working for Vietcomabank for 20 years, said that the bank’s
leadership must consider thoroughly the policy on selling shares to the staffs,
as the policy will play a very important role in rataining young and qualified staffs.
The salary levels now the bank offers to its staffs proves to be too low
if compared to the levels offered by joint stock banks.

Not only Vietcombank’s staffs are impatiently waiting for the IPO, but the investors
who are holding Vietcombank’s convertible bonds are also very excited as well.
Tran N.T. a staff from a joint stock bank, who holds VND120mil worth of Vietcombank’s
bonds said that he has bought the bonds at the price which is 2.8 times higher than
the face value. It remains unclear about Vietcombank’s share value after the IPO.

Up to now, Vietcombank has not released any information about the conversion of
bonds into shares. It has just said that the bond holders will be prioritized in
purchasing shares, while not stating clearly how many shares they can buy.

In a recent meeting with the press, Nguyen Hoa Binh, Chairman of Vietcombank,
noted that the bond price, which is three folds higher than the nominal value,
proves to be overly high. The bond holders will not be given any preferences in
the share purchasing price compared to other investors. Meanwhile, the bond’s
interest rate is quite low compared to other valuable papers n the market, at 6% per annum.

As planned, Vietcombank will carry out the IPO at the HCM City Securities Trading Centre (HSTC)
under the mode of public auction. The total volume of shares issued every time by Vietcombank
will not be higher than 10% of the bank’s chartered capital. Right after the IPO, Vietcombank
will look for its strategic partner and will sell 10% of its shares to the partner.

In the first phase of the bank equitisation, the state will still hold 70% of the total
shares, and the proportion will reduce in the second phase, but the lowest level will be 51%.

(Source: TN)

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Jones2318 發表於: 2007-02-25 08:41 |只看樓主 10
一般會員 發送短訊息 t T

越南2月份消費者物價指數(CPI)增加,較1月份增加2.17%,較去年2月增加6.5%,官方認為這個數據還算合理,因為舊曆新年期間,對於民生消費品需求大量增加,是消費者物價指數上漲主要原因。消費者物價上漲是通貨膨脹的指標,如果一個地方通膨嚴重,那對於該國公司的財報分析就要打折扣,舉例來說,因為物價升高,該公司也調高成品售價,但因為製造原料是以過去的價錢在財報上計算,這樣該公司的淨利就有高估的可能,所以在財報分析時,對於這個部份要作調整,有一種方式是將本益比加入通膨的比例來調整,分析的結果才比較不會失真。目前越南的通膨還不算嚴重,不過持續流入的海外資金,勢必會讓越南盾有升值壓力,
連帶也會帶來通膨壓力,因此越南盾匯率和通膨數據是越南即將要面對的問題。

Consumer price index sharply rises in February
14:41' 24/02/2007 (GMT+7)

The February consumer price index ( CPI ) rose 2.17 percent over that of January and 6.5 percent
over the same month last year as predicted earlier by economic experts, said a senior official of
the General Statistics Office (GSO).
According to Nguyen Duc Thang, Deputy Head of the Department for Trade, Price and Services,
the sharp rise in the February CPI was in line with the market rule during the Lunar
New Year festival (Tet) when demand for consumer goods and entertainment was high.
The food and food service group saw the highest rise of 3.45 percent, followed by the
beverage and tobacco group, 2.52 percent, and the home appliances and other services group,
2.26 percent.
Ho Chi Minh City reported the highest CPI increase of 3.05 percent among ten surveyed provinces
and cities, 0.88 percent higher than the national average, followed by Dak Lak, with 2.94 percent,
and Ha Noi, 2.09 percent.
In February, gold price increased 2.08 percent due to high demand for gold as the 2007
wedding season is approaching.
Thang forecasts that the March CPI may decrease by 0.2 percent as usually seen after Tet in many years.

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